The Death of Distance
In her book The Death of Distance (1997), economist Frances Cairncross
outlines how communications technology will change the economic, commercial and
political landscape in the future. She deals with the changing nature of
organisations, communities, government, culture and languages and describes a
number of factors that will influence industry and society in the near future.
These include:
- The death of
distance: the central point and the most important economic force shaping
society in the next half century: distance will no longer determine the cost
of electronic communication. This is already known and understood: with
Voice over IP (VOIP) telephone calls can be made for the price of an email
and many operations based on information technology (computers) are now
located 'offshore', especially in India (see Infoconomy.com). Companies will
organise certain types of work in the world's three major time zones.
- The
irrelevance of size: small companies and individuals will offer services and
ideas that will accept venture capital that previously only very large
organisations could raise. At the same time large corporations will be
consolidated by acquisitions, the strength of brands and the power of
networks.
- A deluge of
information: people will need the means to select information from the vast
quantities that already saturate the world. Some companies offer targeted
information services, specialist knowledge demanded by niche markets.
- Proliferation
of ideas: new ideas and information will travel to the remotest corners of
the globe and poorer countries will have access to the knowledge of the
richer ones.
- More
customised content: companies already provide customised products such as
cars that are mass-produced but have a unique combination of features.
- Increased
value of brand: the latest global craze will attract huge rewards from
global markets and a relatively small number of media stars will become
super-famous and super-rich (David Beckham, Britney Spears, Nicole Kidman,
Russell Crowe, etc.)
- Loose-knit
corporations: companies will become networks of independent specialists
working in smaller units or alone. Already a number of people work from home
(the 'electronic cottage'), for example London journalists may live in the
Yorkshire Dales and rarely visit head office.
- Changes in
political power: governments will become more responsive to lobbying and
public opinion polls, made instantaneous by information technology.
- Redistribution
of wages: competition from poorer countries will lead to the export of
screen-based jobs and the reduction of wages in more developed countries. On
the other hand the premium for certain skills will grow, thus emphasising
the need for education. Some people question the present government's target
of having 50% of the 18-30 age group participating in higher education but
in Finland (land of Nokia) the figure is already 70% and India produces two
million graduates per year. When a good graduate in India can offer the same
or better skills at a third or less of the cost then the people in places
like Britain have to have something special to retain their place in the
labour market.
- Less need for
migration: poor countries will be able to retain their skilled labour rather
than see them move to the industrialised countries. On the other hand
wealthier countries may try to attract people with key skills by offering
incentives such as lower taxes. A country may have ambitious social plans
such as free medical care but the higher taxes this produces may deter
would-be migrants who prefer to go elsewhere or stay in their homelands.
- Communities of
practice: common interests rather than proximity will bind individuals into
communities (on-line communities, etc.) You may not talk to your neighbours
but you may have 'friends' and colleagues all over the world whom you have
never met physically.
- Shift from
government policing to self-policing: it will become harder to enforce laws
on copyright, libel, indecent material and other criminal activity.
Criminals may stay one step ahead but high-profile cases such as breaking up
paedophile rings and blocking music downloads will show how the authorities
can strike back.
- Global peace:
increased interdependence between nations and peoples and greater knowledge
of different communities will make people more tolerant and promote peace.
This may be true in some cases but there is plenty of evidence to the
contrary, e.g. Israel/Palestine, Russia/Chechnya, Americans/Al Qaida, etc.
Summary based on 'Writing The New Economy' by John Middleton (Capstone,
2000).
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